The first desperate wail of a beleaguered reactionary nationalist:
Dave Chandler, July 2019
With acknowledgement to Samuel Johnson
Anthropogenic climate change is a fact ... global warming caused by human beings is real. The science demonstrates this incontrovertibly. And ... common sense makes this phenomenon apparent: In the course of just two hundred years we have burned up literally millions and millions of years of solar energy stored in the form of fossil fuels, there will be consequences.
For all the positives humanity has gained from fossil fuels there is a price to pay -- there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Global warming deniers imperil us all by impeding efforts to change human activities that are causing climate change. Increasingly they don't even try to offer alternative scientific explanations, their response is reactionary, it is merely political and alarmist: global warming is a communist plot.
The scientific research keeps coming in to help us understand what is happening -- and what is happening in front of our very own eyes keeps showing us the predicament we are in and how much it will ultimately cost us and our children and grandchildren.
Climate change: Current warming 'unparalleled' in 2,000 years
BBC - July 24, 2019
The speed and extent of current global warming exceeds any similar event in the past 2,000 years, researchers say.
They show that famous historic events like the "Little Ice Age" don't compare with the scale of warming seen over the last century.
The research suggests that the current warming rate is higher than any observed previously.
The scientists say it shows many of the arguments used by climate sceptics are no longer valid. ...
"This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic (human induced) global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years."
Climate scientists drive stake through heart of skeptics' argument
NBC News - July 24, 2019
Global warming skeptics sometimes say rising temperatures are just another naturally occurring shift in Earth’s climate, like the Medieval Warm Period of the years 800 to 1200 or the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that spanned from roughly 1300 to 1850.
But a pair of studies published Wednesday provides stark evidence that the rise in global temperatures over the past 150 years has been far more rapid and widespread than any warming period in the past 2,000 years — a finding that undercuts claims that today’s global warming isn’t necessarily the result of human activity.
I'm a scientist. Under Trump I lost my job for refusing to hide climate crisis facts
Maria Caffrey, The Guardian - July 25, 2019
The Trump administration’s hostility towards climate science is not new. Interior climate staffer Joel Clement’s reassignment and the blocking of intelligence aide Rod Schoonover’s climate testimony, which forced both federal employees to resign in protest, are just two of the innumerable examples. These attempts to suppress climate science can manifest themselves in many ways. It starts with burying important climate reports and becomes something more insidious like stopping climate scientists from doing their jobs. In February 2019, I lost my job because I was a climate scientist in a climate-denying administration. And yet my story is no longer unique. ...
Ultimately it will be the taxpayers who will pay the true price for our apathy towards these violations. It will become progressively costlier to alter our infrastructure to accommodate the incoming tides. And we will watch as our historic structures are swallowed by the sea. As these things are happening, remember that there were probably multiple scientists like me who warned of these dangers but were silenced. The current administration may only last a matter of years, but its actions may potentially impact our planet for centuries.
Last Month Was the Hottest June on Earth Ever Recorded
LiveScience.com - July 18, 2019
If you thought last month felt really, really hot, you were right. June 2019 was the hottest June on record for the globe. And, it was the second month in a row that balmy temperatures caused Antarctic sea ice coverage to reach a record low. ...
Are these record high temperatures a result of climate change? Yup.
"Climate is, by definition, the long-term average of weather, over many years," Josef Werne, a professor of geology and environmental science at the University of Pittsburgh, previously told Live Science. "One cold (or warm) year or season has little to do with overall climate. It is when those cold (or warm) years become more and more regular that we start to recognize it as a change in climate rather than simply an anomalous year of weather," he said.
The most important thing you can do as an American is vote for candidates committed to international and national policies to deal forthrightly with global warming. Personal actions are admirable, but we are now at the point where we must act together, globally, for the benefit of our posterity. That's all there is to it.
The carbon 'free lunch' socio-economic experiment is over.
For all the positives humanity has gained from fossil fuels -- nothing is free -- there is a price to pay. We are not off the hook for the effects of burning millions of years of stored solar energy in just over two centuries ... just because we did not have sufficient foresight to anticipate the cost does not mean that the bill is not due. It is simple common sense and no amount of denial or political obstinance will alter reality.
Here I link to some particularly salient information to further an understanding of what is going on, what is at stake, and hopefully motivate all of us to do the only thing we can to preserve ourselves and future generations: organize, vote, and support mitigation policies. We are all in this together.
Weather is explained by climate ... and we are witnessing changes in weather patterns and in the intensity of weather phenomenon that demonstrate the effects of anthropogenic global warming.
This video explains this succinctly.
Last month was the hottest June ever recorded — as climate groups warn of an ‘ecological emergency’
CNBC - July 3, 2019
Soaring temperatures worldwide made last month the hottest June ever recorded, according to data collected by the EU’s satellite agency.
Data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which is tasked with providing comprehensive climate information for the EU, showed global average temperatures for June 2019 were the highest on record for the month.
Baked Alaska: record heat fuels wildfires and sends tourists to the beach
The Guardian - July 3, 2019
Anchorage experienced higher than average temperatures nearly every day of June, reaching a balmy 80F on days that once maxed out at a mild 67.
The weather is forecasted to heat up further through and after the Fourth of July, with temperatures expected to climb to nearly 90F in Fairbanks and Anchorage over the weekend.
If the forecasts are correct, the state could set several new local heat records before the week is out.
CO2 emissions are on track to take us beyond 1.5 degrees of global warming
ScienceNews.org - July 1, 2019
A new study shows just how hard it may be to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial times.
The world’s existing power plants, industrial equipment, vehicles and other CO₂-emitters are on track to pump out enough carbon dioxide to blow past that target by midcentury, researchers report July 1 in Nature. Add in future power plants that are already planned, permitted or under construction, and we could emit enough by 2033 to raise average global atmospheric temperatures by 1.5 degrees, the researchers say. ...
... Human activity has already increased global temperatures by 1 degree. Emitting an additional 420 to 580 gigatons of CO2 could warm the planet to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2018. Current infrastructure could emit that much CO2 between 2018 and as early as 2035, though it could take until 2046 to reach those totals, the new study found.
Rising heat stress could cost 80 million jobs by 2030 - U.N.
Thomson Reuters Foundation - July 1, 2019
Rising heat due to climate change could lead to the loss of 80 million jobs by 2030, with poor countries worst hit, the United Nations said on Monday, as Europe sweltered in record temperatures.
A temperature rise of 1.5C by the end of century could lead to a 2.2% drop in working hours - equal to 80 million full-time jobs - costing the global economy $2.4 trillion, according to projections by the U.N. International Labour Organization (ILO).
And ... cognitive dissonance for climate change deniers who are also aggrieved about immigration: these realities are mutually inclusive. There is no such thing as a 'free lunch'.
We’ll Never Solve Immigration If We Don’t Solve Climate Change
Fortune/Penny Pritzker - June 18, 2019
Climate change and immigration have become more inextricably linked than ever. As of the end of May in fiscal year 2019, almost 150,000 migrants from Guatemala traveling with family members had been apprehended at our southwest border. That represents roughly 1% of the country’s total population. While there are a number of reasons driving this migration, including violence, poverty, and corruption, researchers now believe that climate change represents a significant underlying factor. In Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, 2.2 million people have lost their crops due to excessive rain and drought, according to the World Food Programme. These are also some of the world’s most susceptible countries to drought.
Rising temperatures have severely impacted weather patterns, rainfall, soil quality, and crops’ vulnerability to disease, and thus have had a significant negative effect on farmers and local economies. Since 1950, the average temperature in Central America has increased by 0.5 degrees Celsius, and it is projected to climb another 1 to 2 degrees by 2050. More broadly, data also shows that global migration due to climate change will only grow in the years ahead. According to the World Bank, climate change could displace as many as 140 million people by 2050 in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia.
by Dave Chandler
There is an effort here in Arvada for a city government mandated trash collection service. Under this proposal the hauling away of your residential garbage would be done through a city council awarded contract to a single company city-wide or to a single hauler for subdivided districts.
The biggest arguments in favor of this scheme seem to be that a single hauler will increase the participation of Arvadans in recycling; and that one truck a week will cause less air pollution, less noise, and presumably be less destructive of our streets. (Though I now often have more package delivery vans traversing my street everyday than garbage trucks during the whole week.)
There are, however, common sense reasons why the single hauler plan is not a good idea ... at least at this time.
First, of course, is that it takes away consumer choice — the government will decide who picks up your garbage and you will have to pay whatever the selected company decides you will pay.
Second, while there is general consensus that recycling is economically efficient and is good for the environment, there are a couple of problems with the notion that ought to be considered. Recycling would not be mandatory, therefore, under this government program you will be paying to subsidize a recycling service even if you do not participate (for instance, you may choose to handle recycling yourself; see SustainAbility). Taken away will be your freedom to choose a lower payment to a company that doesn’t offer recycling.
Furthermore, there are currently serious nationwide discussions about the efficaciousness of recycling, especially of plastics in light of China’s decision to no longer accept American materials. It would be difficult if not impossible for Arvada government to contractually dictate to a trash collection company that all recyclable materials must be recycled. There will be no way to guarantee to Arvadans that their plastic waste (or any other recyclable waste) will not end up in a landfill anyway.
Third, only corporate out-of-state-owned haulers are likely to have the resources to compete for a single city-wide contract or even for two or three intra-city area contracts. Instead of supporting local trash hauling businesses -- and their profits remaining in Colorado -- Arvadans will be forced to pay fees to a mega-waste corporation.
Consolidation of the trash hauling industry will be furthered by awarding a single hauler contract to a large corporation, ultimately leading to less accountability to customers and, yes, eventually higher prices (that is what monopolies do).
Fourth, a multi-year contract with a single hauler will preclude innovations in trash collection. At this point perhaps it would be more effective for Arvada government to engage with other metro communities to explore the concept of waste-to-energy electrical power plants. Or perhaps engage in discussions with Denver to participate in an expansion of their Denver Composts program. Or, Arvada government could consider incentives to trash collection businesses already operating in the city to use quieter, more fuel efficient or alternative fuels trucks.
Finally, the political component of how this single hauler plan should cause concern. Can we trust the Arvada city council — as it is currently constituted — to consider the best interests of the citizens as a whole when awarding such a large contract?
As they say, “the devil is in the details” and with such a consequential decision -- that will affect every single resident of Arvada -- these details must be fully debated. Drafting a contract for a single hauler would be fraught with peril and require a diligence that this council has not shown itself to be adept with, for example:
A few articles I have found informative:
Malaysia to send back plastic waste to Western countries - NBC News; May 28, 2019
America has a recycling problem. Here's how to solve it. - The Week; February 11, 2019
Why America’s recycling industry is in the dumps - CBS News; October 10, 2018
Volvo unveils new all-electric garbage truck with up to 200 km of range - electric; May 9, 2018
The era of the carbon fuels free lunch socio-economic experiment is drawing to a close -- there is no such thing as a free lunch -- now we have to pay. And we should boldly do it while being grateful for the many advantages and benefits we have thus far received from coal, petroleum, and natural gas.
We know what is causing global warming: scientists have examined all of the variables -- it isn't volcanoes or the Sun -- it is nearly 8 billion human beings on the planet and the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. ( What's Really Warming the World? )
It is a crisis because of the rapid rate greenhouse gases are accumulating in our atmosphere -- this is measurable, it isn't controversial. However, this explains why shrugging off this phenomenon with a "we'll adapt" excuse is and will be destructive of humanity. ( Climate Change: How Do We Know? )
The two hundred year human adventure in a completely carbon-based culture is coming to an end ... one way or another. To do nothing will be vastly more expensive than affirmatively adopting a 'can-do' approach to dealing forthrightly with this crisis.
Common sense makes global warming evident ... as I have written many times before. We have indeed derived tremendous benefits from fossil fuels, our modern technological society; however, there is no such thing as a free lunch. In the course of just two hundred years we have burned up literally millions and millions of years of solar energy stored in the form of fossil fuels, we humans have done that -- there are negative consequences and they are evident.
Antarctic instability 'is spreading'
BBC - May 16, 2019
Almost a quarter of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet can now be considered unstable, according to a new assessment of 25 years of satellite data.
By unstable, scientists mean more ice is being lost from the region than is being replenished through snowfall.
Some of the biggest glaciers have thinned by over 120m in places.
Losses from the two largest ice streams - Pine Island and Thwaites - have risen fivefold over the period of the spacecraft observations.
And the changes have seen a marked acceleration in just the past decade.
The driver is thought to be warm ocean water which is attacking the edges of the continent where its drainage glaciers enter the sea.
It was 84 degrees near the Arctic Ocean this weekend as carbon dioxide hit its highest level in human history
Boston Globe/Washington Post - May 14, 2019
Near the entrance to the Arctic Ocean in northwest Russia, the temperature surged to 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 Celsius). Meanwhile, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eclipsed 415 parts per million for the first time in human history.
... Saturday’s carbon dioxide measurement of 415 parts per million at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory is the highest in at least 800,000 years and probably over 3 million years. Carbon dioxide levels have risen by nearly 50 percent since the Industrial Revolution.
Here Are The Main Takeaways From UN's Chilling Report on Species Extinction
ScienceAlert/Darryl Fears, Washington Post - May 7, 2019
More plants and animals are threatened with extinction now than any other period in human history, it concludes. Nature's current rate of decline is unparalleled, and the accelerating rate of extinctions "means grave impacts on people around the world are now likely," it says.
... ocean ecosystems are degrading as temperatures rise toward 2 degrees Celsius - 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit - above preindustrial levels, the study warns. Coral reefs lost to warming and acidifying oceans could cause a collapse in commercial and indigenous fisheries, affecting billions of coastal residents who rely on seafood for protein.
... "The most important thing isn't necessarily that we're losing .. 1 million species - although that's important, don't misunderstand me," Watson [Robert Watson, a British chemist who served as the panel's chairman] said during a teleconference Sunday.
"The bigger issue is the way it will affect human well-being, as we've said many times - food, water, energy, human health.
"We care about nature, but we care about human well-being," Watson said. "We need to link it to human well-being; that's the crucial thing. Otherwise we're going to look like a bunch of tree-huggers."
... "Since 1992, we've been telling the world we have a problem," Watson said. "Now what's different? It's much worse today than it was in 1992. We've wasted all of the time .. the last 25 years."
The pace of anthropogenic global warming is increasing; the repercussions becoming starkly evident; the costs are mounting. Embracing climate denial is a fool's delusion, doing nothing is idiotic. We have to be smart, wise, and act -- we are all in this together.
Climate Change and the Role of Uncertainty
NeuroLogicaBlog/Steven Novella - March 14, 2019
Global warming deniers use this uncertainty as an excuse to do nothing (doing nothing always seems to be their goal, regardless of the justification). As a physician, that logic is painful. If I am not sure that my patient has a serious condition, that is not a reason to do nothing, it creates an imperative to do something. The specific intervention is then based largely on a risk vs benefit analysis. And often, as with global warming, acting early is key. You definitely want to find that tumor when it is small and before it has metastasized.
A recent study published in Nature Climate Change takes a similar approach by looking at many (literally millions) different pathways the climate might take between now and 2100 based upon all the variables that affect climate and various actions we might take. Just as I often do with my patients, they ask, “Is there a potential pathway to an acceptable outcome?” The more time we waste, the more our options are limited, and the more the potential pathways close in on us.
“Despite massive uncertainties in a multitude of sectors, human actions are still the driving factor in determining the long-term climate. Uncertainty is sometimes interpreted as an excuse for delaying action. Our research shows that uncertainty can be a solid reason to take immediate action,” said Lamontagne.
Exactly right. I make this exact point to my students – your uncertainty is not a justification for doing nothing. It’s the opposite – uncertainty means we need to be more careful, consider all possibilities, and make sure we are covering the worst outcomes.
What Changed My Mind About Climate Change?
Risk management is not a binary choice.
The Bulwark/Jerry Taylor - May 21, 2019
Our only course now is mutual action.
It is important in this mutual action to remember that individuals and families still have to make a living ... a "we know what is best for you" attitude from those of us advocating for dramatic policy changes will be just as destructive as climate denial. The political components have to be considered, economic ramifications especially for poor and working folks have to be factored into our action plans. Wise choice of battles will have to be made and understanding that the trivial should not be elevated to the truly consequential if we are to be successful in implementing life saving environmental programs.
We are now at a point where individual action while commendable is not sufficient; we have to take large mutual steps now merely to mitigate the climate change that has already happened. Concept programs like the Green New Deal have to be negotiated and effectuated; partisan politics put aside for the survivability of our posterity. Engagement in the political process, your voice, and your vote are the most critical things you can do to ensure a livable future for yourselves and future generations of human beings on planet Earth.
We are running out of time.
Humans Have 30 Years To Stave Off Climate Catastrophe, 'Uninhabitable Earth' Author Says
WBUR - May 13, 2019
This graphic explains why 2 degrees of global warming will be way worse than 1.5
Vox - October 7, 2018
Weekly Animation of Arctic Sea Ice Age with Graph of Ice Age By Area: 1984 - 2016
Chandler’s Theorem of Individual Liberty
The degree of individual liberty one is allowed to exercise is inverse to the density of human population in which that person resides.
I've been a registered Unaffiliated, independent voter for most of the past quarter century. I am not ideological in my votes, I tend to be practical. I am not anti-government, but I retain what I think is a healthy skepticism about what entrenched, established officials will do for taxpayers and citizens -- versus what they will do for big campaign contributors and special interests.
It is a long ballot this year ... I haven't addressed all of the questions, issues, and candidates that will appear, but most are here.
Here is a .pdf sample ballot for Jefferson County that contains all of the offices and the ballot titles on all of the questions: Download Sample Ballot_2018_General_Election FINAL
I'm going to start with local ballot questions first. Jefferson County, Federal, and Colorado statewide offices and ballot issues follow.
* * *
November 6, 2018 General Election Jefferson County, Colorado
CITY OF ARVADA BALLOT ISSUE 3F
Bond for Ralston Road and 72nd Avenue Projects
I support the arguments of Arvada for All the People on this question. However, even after questioning the City Manager and getting a non-response response from my district city council representative, there is no answer to why a very expensive underpass on 72nd Avenue at the Union Pacific tracks is necessary; a four lane at-grade crossing would surely do. Remember, this is the city council of the $30 Land Deal and of the attempt to raise our sales taxes last election – I simply don't trust their judgement on matters like this.
Furthermore, the pro-3F committee is the same as the sales tax hike committee of two years ago. I find this kind of politics suspect … only the names have been changed to protect the guilty.
ARVADA FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT BALLOT ISSUE 6E
Arvada for All the People recommends a 'no' vote. I concur.
JEFFERSON COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT R-1 BALLOT ISSUE 5A
Mill Levy Increase for Teacher Salaries, Programs
I will vote for this because teachers should be paid more … it isn't their fault that the Standardized Testing regimen is still in place. (See below my comment on the statewide tax increase for public school, Amendment 73.)
JEFFERSON COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT R-1 BALLOT ISSUE 5B
Property Tax Hike for Construction, Facilities Improvements
The politicians and elected officials in this state and in the various counties and school districts will not make the hard decisions; they think they can fool average folks into bailing them out for their lame decisions.
* * *
Federal Office; Colorado State Offices; Jefferson County Offices;
and Statewide Amendments and Propositions
Two years ago I voted for a good mix of Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians – this year my choices trend to be Democratic. This is not necessarily because of a preference for a lot of their positions on issues, but because the Republican Party has tragically been captured by churlish radicals. I find that the Republican Party -- especially since 2016 -- is not very conservative like the kind of respectable, rationale conservatism I witnessed growing up in Wyoming back in the 1970s. The GOP is now mostly composed of right-wing reactionaries. Unfortunately in our rigid two party system one isn't given many options to express disapproval of one party or the other. But I disapprove of the 2018 Republicans.
Representative to the 116th United States Congress - District 7
X Ed Perlmutter
X Jared Polis
I am not an enthusiastic voter for Polis because I dislike super wealthy, self-funding candidates; they contribute to the corrupt system of campaign finance that has developed in this country. That said Walker Stapleton is touting a Trump endorsement, has shown himself an inept candidate, and he seems bereft of any visionary ideas for Colorado.
I'm voting for all the Democrats for the state constitutional offices: Secretary of State, Jena Griswold; Attorney General, Phil Weiser; State Treasurer, Dave Young.
State Representative - District 27
X Vicki Pyne
Not my state house district, but the other half of Arvada – Vicki is honest and forthright. She has been an active part of our community and serves capably on the Apex board. I think she will make a good representative for Arvada. Vicki Pyne is a Republican.
State Representative - District 29
X Tracy Kraft-Tharp
Hans V. Romer
My state house district. Tracy is a good legislator … and everybody knows it.
Regional Transportation District Director – District L
X Bob Wilson
Bob Wilson is not the reformer we need at RTD. Nevertheless, I believe he is genuinely dedicated to mass transit for the sake of the public good. Conversely, Shelley Cook has been and is still all about public transit as a facilitator for more development. If Cook gets elected to the RTD board the status quo gets a boost – and that means continuing dysfunction at RTD.
Regional Transportation District Director - District N
X Brad K. Evans
Margaret (Peggy) A. Catlin
Brad Evans is the kind of reformer we need on the RTD board. I can't vote for Brad since this is a Lakewood district, but RTD and the taxpayers will be better off with his participation on the board.
Jefferson County Offices
I am still in the mode that Republicans should be denied Jefferson County offices — they are still perpetuating the worst kind of cynical and manipulative politics to hold onto power. This time County Commissioner Don Rossier resigned early (November 2017) so that Tina Francone could run as an incumbent.
In my opinion, the musical chairs, term limit evading game they have played with Faye Griffin, resignations, and appointments is just plain corrupt.
Vote the Republicans out.
Jefferson County Commissioner - District 3
X Lesley Dahlkemper
Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder
X George Stern
Faye Griffin should be the poster child for the term limits movement in Colorado.
Jefferson County Treasurer
X Gerald "Jerry" DiTullio
Jefferson County Assessor
Brian A. Cassidy
X Scot Kersgaard
Jefferson County Coroner
X Annette Cannon
Colorado State Ballot Questions
Amendment Y - U.S. Congressional Redistricting Commission
Amendment Z - Colorado State Senate and House Redistricting Commission
Amendment 73 - State Income Tax Increase for Education
I vowed to myself not to vote for any tax increases for schools as long as the failed Accountability-Standardized Testing-No Child Left Behind-Race to the Top policies are in effect. I’m sticking with my promise to myself. No matter who you elect, if you keep giving them more money nothing is ever going to change.
Amendment 74 - Compensation for Fair Market Value
I am indeed a critic of Arvada City Hall's development agenda -- I am for smarter, wiser, and more responsible growth. Nevertheless, Amendment 74 could very well strip away virtually all the safeguards that local control gives us to make decisions about how our city progresses. A big 'No!' on this proposal.
Proposition 109 - Transportation No Tax Hike; Borrow and Spend
Proposition 110 - State Sale Tax Increase for Transportation Projects
Hike the most regressive tax?
Working and poor Coloradans shouldn't be dunned to support much of the increase in traffic congestions while land speculators, residential and commercial developers contribute little directly to mitigating the problem.
Proposition 111 - Payday Loan Reform
Proposition 112 - Drilling Offsets
I understand that the oil and gas exploration companies can now drill horizontally up to a mile away. So why do they need to set-up rigs next to where people live and do business? And ... if there really are hundreds of years of natural gas reserves, why is it seemingly all underneath towns and cities?
Dave Chandler accepts contributions -- not tax deductible.
7930 Kendall Street
Arvada, CO 80003